I remembered my recent post on Facebook, regarding “Kurdistan”: “This has happened before. Maybe the Kurds will be lucky this time.”
For some reason, Kurds have consistently been discriminated against and marginalized in the lands in which they’ve evolved and existed for 1000s of years. For some reason, the West has not recognized this history nor allowed the Kurds international recognition nor land or resources. Maybe Europe, being a maritime power, chose instead to divide the land and power among peoples closer to the ocean: creating a past mistake coming to haunt us now. Israel, Syria, SE Asia, eastern Europe – we like “simple” solutions. Given our human limitations, we don’t learn without blood being spilled.
Periodically throughout the centuries, when the occupying powers were weakened by larger wars, the Kurds (like other ethnic groups in similar circumstances) managed to carve out a small governance or democracy for themselves – only to have it destroyed once those larger wars were over and the winning powers turning their attention back to the Kurds. The same thing could happen now.
With British and U.S. air support, and after much suffering at the hands of Baghdad, the Kurds managed to establish their own autonomy in northern Iraq, administered from Irbil. A whole generation of Kurds are now growing up probably speaking Kurdish more than Arabic and any other language. Good for them. How long will this last though?
This freedom has been more successful than previous attempts, probably because today we have a wider diaspora of Kurds and better communication and exchange of information – more humanity, in other words – throughout the world. Yet there are dangerous signals. If the Kurds do not tread carefully and make wise, important, and delicate decisions now, then once more they could lose this autonomy. Given the location and current history, this loss could be a really big thing and affect us in a way more major than existing and previous conflicts have.
The worst case scenario that could evolve, and towards which we seem to be stepping, is a major major war in that area involving about 250 million people, much destruction and alienation, an enormous refugee crisis, and negative fallout into the next few centuries. As Canadians, we could be impacted the most in that we have only a small population spread over 4 million square km of land and could quickly be inundated with millions of people who because of their urgency and need have no opportunity to learn our customs and values. Forget about protecting our natural assets and economic advantages.
Because we have not dealt with the Syrian uprising and let it – and are still letting it – fester, 1000s of otherwise peaceful people are becoming militarized and gaining weapons in that region. Even reinforcing Mr Assad and subduing democracy and freedom – in exchange for peace – may have been preferable to allowing the instability to continue, and continue.
With almost 20y of autonomy, Irbil is feeling more confident and ready to defend what it sees as its land and resources. Baghdad is becoming richer by the day and the two could start to war. If they do, then Ankara would ally with and support Baghdad. Irbil would now be threatened both from the west and the south. Irbil, however, does not have international recognition and would be on its own regarding weapons and support. Ankara and Baghdad do have international recognition and could more easily buy whatever they needed. Within a few months, Irbil could be no more. The west, of course, would talk a lot but Russia and China would stifle any humanitarian concern.
If Turkey does start to help Baghdad militarily, then Ankara will have to go through eastern Turkey to do so. Eastern Turkey is home to about 15 million Kurds. These Kurds, having suffered enough due to Ankara, will actively resist Turkish armies moving through their region with the intention of destroying the only focal point of Kurdish power, Irbil. Because most Turkish people have a hard-headed attitude against Kurds, Turkey will erupt in revolution, while at the same time sending troops and arms into Iraq to help Baghdad. The Kurds, feeling they have everything to lose, will fight back with all they’ve got. Everything they’ve suffered for and managed to gain will be at stake.
Note that Ankara and Baghdad have access to international arms; Kurdistan does not. If the West will not supply those arms, then Kurds will have to turn to Russia and China. Not their first choice, but out of desperation. Russia, China, America, and Europe will be at loggerheads about the situation, and emotions will run much higher than before. Note the escalation over the past few years: a bit of a fuss over northern Africa, much greater resistance and fuss over Syria, and a pending much much greater fuss over Kurdistan: a few million people, then 20 million, and now 200 million people.
Because western supply lines would be inhibited or cut, supply lines resulting from necessity would need to go through northern Iran (Kurdish) to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Russia.
Some 10 or more million Kurds live in western Iran, and have systematically been discriminated and slaughtered by Teheran. Currently these Kurds live in a delicate balance with the Persians in their midst and vis-a-vis Teheran.
Luckily Baghdad and Teheran are not the best of friends. However, anything going on with Kurdistan Iraq is going to seriously interest the Kurdish in Iran. Because all the countries bordering the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq have predominantly Kurdish populations, those borders are already very porous to Kurds.
Although a concern, even if Iran does acquire nuclear capability militarily, they would never use nuclear bombs to their west; the radiation would quickly reach Teheran. However, Iran does have long-range missile capability and could target major population and resource centers in the whole region. Should they agree with Ankara and Baghdad regarding the Kurdish, and aim those missiles and send military equipment and people into Iraq and eventually across western Iran and into Kurdistan, then that would draw another 80 million people into the conflict. Even if they don’t use it, having nuclear capability would greatly increase Teheran’s clout internationally and would enable Teheran to influence any military decision in the area regarding supply and influence coming from western nations.
Although Afghanistan-Pakistan aspirations and conflicts are somewhat removed from those involving the Kurds, those A-P conflicts could fuel the Kurdish ones through Islamic links. Like most countries in the region, both these countries have artificially created borders splitting ethnicities and resulting in ongoing political tensions. If anything, Afghanistan and Pakistan would more likely supply Iraq and Turkey against Kurdistan, which A-P perceives as more western-leaning anyway.
The Saudi Arabian peninsula will not be able to stay uninvolved either. Their population may not be as great, but their wealth is enormous – and they have the latest and greatest in military stuff. When push comes to shove, Saudi Arabia will support Iraq. However, Saudi Arabia seems to be governed by a lot of common sense; therefore, they may choose to stay out of the conflict.
Israel, too, will not be interested in getting involved, initially. But if Iran starts to move weapons and men westward closer towards Israel, then the Jewish government will really perk up. We should also consider that Jews have strong minorities and a well organized lobby throughout most of the western world. The general population of America may not understand or be concerned about all the complicated ethnicities and feelings flowing through SW Asia; however, Jews could make all that very visible and understandable very quickly. If necessary, that information could be directed to help Israel protect itself in every way possible.
My feeling is that “Israel” will come in on the side of the Kurds, at least indirectly, rather than on the side of Ankara, Baghdad, or Teheran. If Israel does make that inclination obvious, then the more local populations of Lebanon, Damascus, Jordan, and even Egypt may be dragged into supporting A-B-T. If targeted, Israel will respond.
The problem there, is the Palestinian wild card within and surrounding Israel. Israel may find itself fighting a war both outside and within its own borders.
Irbil’s major cash comes from developing the oil fields in northern Iraq. However, Baghdad also claims those areas. At this very moment, there is a standoff between Irbil and Baghdad, with both sending more soldiers and whatever hardware they have available to central Iraq. The two armies are facing off in that oil-rich region, and vocally at least are ready to fight. The spark that could ignite the area is about to be lit.
Because the greater power (Damascus) is being otherwise occupied, the 2 million Kurds in Syria are now experiencing greater autonomy than ever before. Feeling their rights actualized, they want to keep the power at all costs. Irbil wants them to have that autonomy – even under the guise of “not separation but living within a larger UN-mandated envelope that does have international recognition”.
International recognition is key. I didn’t realize that so strongly until now. Example: Turkey wants to defend its border with Syria and is requesting Patriot missiles in order to do so. Only a few countries (not Turkey) actually have Patriot missiles to deploy. Turkey has access to those missiles only because it is part of NATO (i.e., has international recognition). Today, large-scale military hardware and capability – probably because of the infrastructure required, and the expense – is only available to a few rich nations. Even Israel is having to develop its own capabilities rather than go begging for such from foreign powers in time of need.
So, if you’re not considered a nation by the international community and are without such alliances, it is difficult and pretty well impossible to truly arm yourself with state-of-the-art weapons, planes, and other stuff. In other words, the Kurds cannot arm themselves as they may need to; however, Baghdad and Ankara can.
I see a need to implement the following balances.
It is a good move on Mr Obama’s part to aim to make the U.S. oil-independent in this coming decade. That independence will limit western resources going towards the Middle East and reduce the impact of those countries on America.
The international community should recognize the ethnic identity of the Kurdish peoples asap. This will greatly aggravate relations with Turkey for the moment, but will in the long run inhibit Turkey’s ability to arm itself, and enable the Kurdish people to defend themselves better using international diplomacy rather than arms and death.
Recognizing Kurds as people will irritate Teheran/Iran no end, but what the hell, won’t that be a plus? The recognition will also give more visibility to the democratic limitations of Teheran and thus make it more difficult for Teheran to acquire supplies and arms internationally. Yes, Russia and China will help Teheran out; but neither Russia nor China would benefit from 100s of millions of people there fighting and dying – and fleeing. Not a good investment for them.
In the same spirit, but without officially challenging the existing national bordering, we could highlight and recognize – and teach – ethnic divisions more clearly. The attempt would be to realize and eventually aim for a fairer distribution of governance and resources in the future. If the Pashtuns, for example, realize that America does accept their ethnicity and rights, then perhaps there will be less tension, hatred, corruption, and death in the area. Yes, existing central government egos will be upset and sensible people will be afraid of instability, but if we go about it gently with positive hearts, then we can gradually aim towards greater fairness – and stability – in the future. And accomplish this with much less death and destruction.
The current governance, at least in northern Iraq, is administered by men who have proven themselves in the past but who are getting older and are limited by both age and ability to think much outside the current envelope. Like all of us older folk, however wise we’ve become, our thoughts, feelings, and actions are reactions to our history more than adaptations to the future.
Kurdistan needs a newer generation of capable people to guide it into the future – hopefully a happy future. These people need to be identified, encouraged, cultivated, tested – and sooner than yesterday if possible.
To minimize future division within Israel, Jerusalem needs to reconcile with the Palestinian population. They need to remove separation-inducing forces. Bring all children under a common educational curriculum that is fair to all. Stop treating Arabs as people to marginalize and kill. Otherwise, those people will eventually turn and kill – after a long and bloody conflict – the Jews themselves. The conflict that I fear is just bubbling below the surface now, could well determine that result.
